Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 25.696317 30.668032 36.113358 42.490363 49.722770 57.639671 66.929296
2025-07-27 18.909016 25.599885 33.636783 43.869058 56.408212 71.129013 89.562148
2025-08-03 14.932017 22.359745 31.947513 44.942061 61.780130 82.535153 109.691245
2025-08-10 11.670623 19.182192 29.530064 44.343089 64.468521 90.296104 125.311460
2025-08-17 9.606363 17.173854 28.216202 44.783359 68.202482 99.266230 142.601824
2025-08-24 7.866472 15.272477 26.694657 44.602889 70.854782 106.726331 158.052889
2025-08-31 6.214828 13.163980 24.514219 43.117687 71.385161 111.140763 169.419932
2025-09-07 5.329477 12.169880 23.898416 43.840550 75.036410 119.931684 187.014133
2025-09-14 4.323981 10.743441 22.355274 42.895065 76.029765 124.873279 199.306540
2025-09-21 3.795995 10.125880 22.093169 43.949104 80.079950 134.352256 218.333223
2025-09-28 2.971156 8.706515 20.189689 42.029264 79.251662 136.475227 226.690101
2025-10-05 2.667647 8.361391 20.229753 43.440308 83.825153 146.881283 247.528530
2025-10-12 2.316084 7.868184 20.002156 44.507990 88.160742 157.520874 269.771268
2025-10-19 2.036305 7.489976 19.967501 45.948682 93.259092 169.657614 294.879580
2025-10-26 1.770224 7.071687 19.780169 47.062243 97.830655 181.118628 319.323324
2025-11-02 1.428907 6.328161 18.760486 46.441149 99.283683 187.584665 336.207224
2025-11-09 1.209371 5.874342 18.316465 46.897732 102.647722 197.249395 358.364353
2025-11-16 0.992833 5.345873 17.602378 46.710581 104.789167 204.931255 377.572342
2025-11-23 0.758148 4.642172 16.320179 45.170173 104.274152 208.081892 389.554902
2025-11-30 0.649415 4.372941 16.109425 45.919956 108.121153 218.762217 414.029397
2025-12-07 0.504591 3.871348 15.172864 44.939241 108.533547 223.499784 428.865419
2025-12-14 0.439913 3.703378 15.145417 46.032544 113.073639 235.581150 456.168517
2025-12-21 0.316959 3.151777 13.870649 44.041033 111.286441 236.381638 464.610274